Social insurance and social assurance are other names of social security. This course focuses and describes how social security concept in Islam. By exploration history of Prophet Muhammad period and his friend (shahabah) wisdom, this study yet could answer this concept, social security in Islam. Finally, this study will compare the concept of social security in Islam and the capitalist system.

Penelitian ini melihat dampak kebijakan fiskal terhadap output dan inflasi serta melihat apakah terdapat diskresi kebijakan fiskal dan bagaimana dampaknya terhadap volatilitas output dan inflasi. Hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan kointegrasi antara pengeluaran pemerintah dan pajak terhadap output dalam jangka panjang. Dalam jangka panjang pengenaan pajak berdampak positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sementara pengeluaran pemerintah tidak. Penyesuaian jangka pendek menunjukkan bahwa shock kenaikan pengeluaran pemerintah berdampak positif terhadap output sementara shock kenaikan pajak berdampak negatif. Lebih dominannya pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap output dalam jangka pendek dibandingkan dengan pajak menunjukkan masih cukup efektifnya kebijakan ini untuk menstimulasi pertumbuhan ekonomi khususnya dalam masa resesi. Sementara itu kenaikan pengeluaran pemerintah menyebabkan penurunan inflasi, sementara peningkatan pajak menyebabkan peningkatan inflasi. Studi ini juga menunjukkan tidak adanya diskresi kebijakan fiskal yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah.

Limabelas tahun sudah Asia Tenggara khususnya Indonesia melewati sebuah peristiwa ekonomi yang telah membuka mata dan pikiran semua pihak betapa rapuhnya bangunan ekonomi yang dibangun. Setelah sebelumnya mendapat julukan sebagai The East Asian Miracle dan macannya Asia (Asian tiger), tidak lama berselang terjadilah guncangan (shock) ekonomi yang berawal dari sisi moneter. Dari sisi nilai tukar (exchange rate), pada tanggal 18 januari 1998 rupiah mencapai puncak kejatuhannya dengan menembus angka Rp. 16.000 per 1 dolar AS.Dari sisi inflasi, angka inflasi mencapai 77,60% dan PDB -13,20%.

Perbankan syariah adalah institusi yang memberikan layanan kepada masyarakat baik melalui penghimpunan dana (pelaburan), penyaluran dana (pembiayaan) dan jasa layanan perbankan lainnya yang berdasarkan syariat Islam. Dalam menyalurkan dana, produk yang ditawarkan adalah akad dengan skim qard dan ijarah. Makalah ini bertumpu kepada akad qard dan ijarah yang dijalankan oleh institusi perbankan syariah di Indonesia dalam dana talangan haji. Dana talangan haji ini bersumber dari fatwa Dewan Syariah Nasional (DSN) Majelis Ulama Indonesia (MUI) No. 29/DSN-MUI/VI/2002 yang didasarkan kepada al-Quran. Fatwa tersebut menuai perbedaan pendapat dari banyak ulama sekarang. Hasil kajian dijangka dapat menghasilkan kerangka konseptual berkaitan kesesuaian antara akad qardh dan ijarah yang difatwakan oleh DSN MUI dengan pendapat para ulama baik ulama klasik maupun ulama kontemporer.

This research aims to provide information about the management of savings hajj on Syariah banking and provides a description of the accounting treatments practice. Unit to be analyzed in this research is accounting treatment which includes the recognition,  measurement,  the presentation of, and disclosure over savings products with the principle mudharabah the on Megas Syariah banking. Data collection method are direct observation,  documentation,  and interview. Criteria used in this research have met recognition of mudharabah, measurement of mudharabah, and presentation of Mudharabah. Based on the analysis, it is found recognition recognized In accordance of the nominal value or the amount of money paid up capital of the company shall. The measurement of counted based on the amount of money paid up capital of the company shall and calculation the ratio in accordance with the provisions of PT. Bank Mega Syariah. Savings of the hajj served in the balance sheet and profit and loss statement. Savings of the hajj expressed into savings mudharabah.

The study analyse sigma and beta convergence of provincial government revenues and expenditures in Indonesia (APBD) by using panel data 30 provinces over the period 2000-2012. The variables used in this study consists of real income per capita and the revenues and expenditures variables in the APBD. The study also included a spatial weights matrix to analyse dependency among provinces. Spatial weights matrix used consists of two types of weights, the real income per capita and the geographical distance. Testing for the presence of spatial dependency performed using Moran's I. The model used in this study are spatial autoreregressive model (SAM) and the spatial error model (SEM). The models are estimated using panel least squares, fixed effects, random effects, as well as both GMM first difference (GMM-DIFF) and system GMM (GMM-SYS). Based on sigma convergence approach, the results of the study showed that during the period of 2000-2012 occurred convergence on total revenue, income, tax, fund balance, total spending, employee spending, and goods spending, but not for the real income per capita. Estimation with beta convergence approach conducted on four variables as each sample (in per capita value), namely: total income, tax, total spending, and goods spending. Estimation with beta convergence is done by using additional explanatory variables which include: economic growth, the degree of openness, as well as economic growth. Based on the beta convergence approach, the study results indicate the occurrence of convergence on total income, tax, total spending, and goods spending. Estimates also lead to the conclusion that there are spatial dependencies between provinces either use distance and income per capita weight.

Asian and European crises were witnesses of banks’ vulnerable due to market risks. The Basel Committee requires an internal risk assessment applying Value at Risk (VaR). However, a replacement of VaR with Expected Shortfall (ES) has been suggested recently due to an excessive losses produced by banks which are beyond VaR estimations. This paper studied the risk of Indonesian banks applying a historical expected shortfall. We used JIBOR (overnight) from 2009 – 2012 as a proxy of market risk. The assessment of a historical expected shortfall of the net position of 27 banks accounts for October 2012 showed that state owned banks placed among the five highest value of each component (net position) in the balance sheet, namely placement to Bank Indonesia, interbank placement, spot and derivatives claims, securities, and loans. It means that the state owned banks had the highest risk and were the most aggressive among Indonesian banks. It might be due to carrying some of the government’s program, such as small enterprise loans.     Keywords: expected shortfall, value at risk, banks, risk.   JEL Classification: D81, G210 | Asian and European crises were witnesses of banks’ vulnerable due to market risks. The Basel Committee requires an internal risk assessment applying Value at Risk (VaR). However, a replacement of VaR with Expected Shortfall (ES) has been suggested recently due to an excessive losses produced by banks which are beyond VaR estimations. This paper studied the risk of Indonesian banks applying a historical expected shortfall. We used JIBOR (overnight) from 2009 – 2012 as a proxy of market risk. The assessment of a historical expected shortfall of the net position of 27 banks accounts for October 2012 showed that state owned banks placed among the five highest value of each component (net position) in the balance sheet, namely placement to Bank Indonesia, interbank placement, spot and derivatives claims, securities, and loans. It means that the state owned banks had the highest risk and were the most aggressive among Indonesian banks. It might be due to carrying some of the government’s program, such as small enterprise loans.     Keywords: expected shortfall, value at risk, banks, risk.   JEL Classification: D81, G210

The study analyse sigma and beta convergence of provincial government revenues and expenditures in Indonesia (APBD) by using panel data 30 provinces over the period 2000-2012. The variables used in this study consists of real income per capita and the revenues and expenditures variables in the APBD. The study also included a spatial weights matrix to analyse dependency among provinces. Spatial weights matrix used consists of two types of weights, the real income per capita and the geographical distance. Testing for the presence of spatial dependency performed using Moran's I. The model used in this study are spatial autoreregressive model (SAM) and the spatial error model (SEM). The models are estimated using panel least squares, fixed effects, random effects, as well as both GMM first difference (GMM-DIFF) and system GMM (GMM-SYS). Based on sigma convergence approach, the results of the study showed that during the period of 2000-2012 occurred convergence on total revenue, income, tax, fund balance, total spending, employee spending, and goods spending, but not for the real income per capita. Estimation with beta convergence approach conducted on four variables as each sample (in per capita value), namely: total income, tax, total spending, and goods spending. Estimation with beta convergence is done by using additional explanatory variables which include: economic growth, the degree of openness, as well as economic growth. Based on the beta convergence approach, the study results indicate the occurrence of convergence on total income, tax, total spending, and goods spending. Estimates also lead to the conclusion that there are spatial dependencies between provinces either use distance and income per capita weight.

In this research, the effect of central bank intervention within a heterogeneous expectations exchange rate model, is investigated. The empirical evidence is conducted by applying a Markov switching approach to daily USD/IDR exchange rate, intervention data of Bank Indonesia from 2006 to 2012. The results are supporting both chartists and fundamentalist regimes. It is shown that the two regimes are persistent. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia’s foreign-exchange intervention has been able to drive the USD/IDR to its fundamentalist rule. However, Bank Indonesia efforts to exert a stabilizing effect of foreign exchange interventions, the result are inconclusive.

Redenomination is a simplification of nominal value of currency by reducing digit (zero number) without reducing the real value of the currency. The main objective of this research was to examine whether the economic conditions at the time of redenomination may affect the success of currency redenomination. The methods used were regression analysis on historical data of 30 countries which are involved in redenominating their currencies, economic experiments with t-test, and survey of people’ perspective. Based on regression analysis, inflation will decrease and economic growth will rise higher after redenomination, if previously a country have experienced high economic growth as well. Based on experimental research, when inflation was high, redenomination could increase the selling price. Otherwise, when inflation was low, redenomination could decrease the selling price. Changes in selling price after redenomination was not affected significantly by differences in economic growth conditions. In different economic conditions, redenomination policy did not significantly affect the changes number of transactions and total value of transactions in the market. From the survey results, public did not believe government can control inflation after redenomination. Redenomination also will not affect consumption pattern

Redenomination is a simplification of nominal value of currency by reducing digit (zero number) without reducing the real value of the currency. The main objective of this research was to examine whether the economic conditions at the time of redenomination may affect the success of currency redenomination. The methods used were regression analysis on historical data of 30 countries which are involved in redenominating their currencies, economic experiments with t-test, and survey of people’ perspective. Based on regression analysis, inflation will decrease and economic growth will rise higher after redenomination, if previously a country have experienced high economic growth as well. Based on experimental research, when inflation was high, redenomination could increase the selling price. Otherwise, when inflation was low, redenomination could decrease the selling price. Changes in selling price after redenomination was not affected significantly by differences in economic growth conditions. In different economic conditions, redenomination policy did not significantly affect the changes number of transactions and total value of transactions in the market. From the survey results, public did not believe government can control inflation after redenomination. Redenomination also will not affect consumption pattern

This paper attempts to examine the effect of ownership and global crisis to income diversification of Indonesian Banks during period of 2005 to 2012. The income diversification is classified as the taxonomy of De Young and Rice (2004), therefore income diversification is classified in to non-traditional stakeholder non-interest income and traditional and fee for service non-interest income. Apart of regress the whole bank sample, analysis is conducted to each of ownership types as well. Pooled effect and random effect panel data are run to produce the estimation result. The result suggests that ownership affects income diversification of Indonesian banks. In terms of traditional and fee for service non-traditional income, public banks significantly generate less than the other ownership types. On the other hand ownership doesn’t affect the effort of Indonesian banks in generating traditional and fee for service non-interest income. The effect of global crisis has different direction to each non-interest income, it significantly encourages banks to generate traditional and fee for service non-interest income, and although it is not significant, it has negative effect to non-traditional stakeholder non-interest income.  

Perekonomian Indonesia pada triwulan I 2014 menunjukkan stabilitas ekonomi semakin terjaga dan ditopang penyesuaian ekonomi yang tetap terkendali. Dalam perkembangan ini, inflasi berada dalam tren menurun dan diikuti oleh defisit transaksi berjalan yang mengecil. Aliran masuk modal asing juga meningkat sejalan dengan perbaikan fundamental ekonomi tersebut yang pada gilirannya berkontribusi pada nilai tukar rupiah yang berada dalam tren menguat. Sejalan dengan itu, permintaan domestik tetap terkelola dengan baik, meskipun pertumbuhan ekonomi menurun cukup tajam dan lebih rendah dari perkiraan akibat kontraksi ekspor rill dari sektor pertambangan. Perkembangan tersebut tidak terlepas dari konsistensi kebijakan yang ditempuh Bank Indonesia dan Pemerintah sejak pertengahan 2013 untuk memperkuat stabilitas ekonomi dan mengelola pertumbuhan ekonomi agar bergerak secara seimbang dan berkesinambungan.

Indonesia is a biggest producer of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) in the world. Production and export volumes continued to increase from year to year. CPO products have an important role in the Indonesian economy, one of them as the country’s largest foreign exchange earner in the plantation sector. Given that Indonesia has adopted a floating exchange rate regime since 1978, the export of commodities such as palm oil will have an important influence on the real exchange rate. Therefore, this study aimed to see how much the world price of CPO influence the development of the real exchange rate of rupiah. The analytical method used is a simultaneous equation model using time series data from 1984 to 2011. The results showed that the increase in CPO price will lead to real exchange rate rupiah appreciated. Therefore, Indonesia as a major producer of CPO should be able to control the world price of crude palm oil in order to control the stability of the real exchange rate of the rupiah. Keywords : world CPO price, simultaneous equation model, the real exchange rate of rupiah.JEL Classification: E2

Capital has an important role in maintaining safety of banks and in order to create a sound banking system. Banks are required to have a sufficient amount of capital, both to support its business expansion as well as a buffer to prevent any unexpected loss that banks might face and absorb losses arising from a variety of risks. Eventhough consists of four banks, State owned banks in Indonesia are catalystor for the banking industry in Indonesia. The failure of state-owned banks can affect the stability of Indonesian banking system. This study aims to study and analyze determinants of capital ratio of state-owned banks. Several variables have been used in previous studies to be used a proxy. The study applied panel data regression model. The capital ratio of state-owned banks is affected by asset growth (LNSIZE), equity to total liabilities ratio (EQTL), non performing loan (NPL), interest rate risk (IRR), and operational cost to operational revenue ratio (BOPO) on a different level of significance.  Keywords: Capital structure, state-owned commercial banks, panel data JEL Classification: C23; G21; G32

Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia triwulan IV 2013 lebih baik dari perkiraan Bank Indonesia disertai dengan struktur yang lebih berimbang. Pertumbuhan ekonomi mengalami peningkatan dari 5,63% pada triwulan III 2013, menjadi 5,72% pada triwulan IV 2013 ini (yoy). Hal ini ditopang oleh membaiknya ekspor riil sejalan dengan kenaikan permintaan mitra dagang negara-negara maju. Pada sisi lain, pertumbuhan permintaan domestik mengalami pertumbuhan yang moderat, ditandai oleh melambatnya konsumsi rumah tangga dan investasi, khususnya investasi non-bangunan. Dengan perkembangan ini, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia untuk keseluruhan tahun 2013 tercatat sebesar 5,78%.

A Measuring the risk associated with interest rates is important since it is beneficial in taking measures before negative effects can take place in an economy. We obtain a risk measure for interest rates by fitting the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to positive extreme day-to-day changes of the interest rate, using data from the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) Second Hand Bond Market, namely Government Bond interest rate closing quotations, for the time period 2001 through 2009. Although the use of the GPD in the context of absolute interest rates is well  ocumented in literature, our approach is different insofar and contributes to the literature as changes in interest rates constitute the target of our analysis, reflecting the idea that risk arises from abrupt changes in interest rate rather than in interest rate levels themselves. Our study clearly shows that the GPD, when applied to interest rate changes, provides a good tool for interest rate risk assessment, and permit a period-specific risk evaluation.  Keyword: Interest rate risk; covered interest parity; Turkey; generalized Pareto distribution JEL Classification: G1; C1

This paper studies the effects of foreign capital flows toward the exchange rate of rupiah both in total and across types of capital investment. This paper also analyzes the thresholds of current account deficit which significantly affect the rate of Rupiah. The estimation shows the capital outflow affect the rate of Rupiah to depreciate and is larger than the appreciation pressure of capital inflow (except when invested in Certificate of Bank Indonesia, SBI). Furthermore, the rate of Rupiah is more sensitive on government bond (SUN) than stock or SBI. The yield of this government bond largely affects the probability of the capital reversal. Related to the current account, the estimation shows that after exceeds the threshold of USD980 million monthly deficit or about 2% of GDP, the exchange rate will depreciate by 12.7% (m-o-m) with the lag effect of 4 months.  Keywords: Capital flows, exchange rate, current account deficit, threshold. JEL Classification: F31, F32

Global financial crisis which began in the US in the latter part of 2008 hit a lot of countries in both trade and finance. In trade aspect, the crisis spread widely; in Indonesia, the total export value in 2009 dropped to 14,3%. Therefore, the economy of China, tightly linked with Asian countries including Indonesia, which rapidly rose before the crisis but slowed after it should be monitored as this condition, could indirectly hold down Indonesia’s GDP. Applying RAS method to update Asian IO data, this research has attempted to describe the trade structure of Asian countries in 2010. Also, it implemented a simulation of the impact of US and China’s GDP decline and US exports on Indonesia’s GDP, both at aggregate and sector levels. The result of the mapping shows that Indonesia is getting more dependent on China. Generally, the link between Indonesia’s exported products and global production chain is weak. Indonesia’s export commodities which are mostly of intermediate goods have low contribution towards value added. Moreover, the result of the simulation shows that 1% decrease in China’s GDP has greater impact on Indonesia’s GDP (0,14%) than that of the US (0,05%) and EU (0,07%) though with similar point.  Keyword: Trade Interactions, Input Output Model JEL Classification : F16, R15

This paper measures the insolvency risk of bank in Indonesia. We apply Merton model to identify the probability of defaul tover 30 banks during the period of 2002-2013. This paper also identify role of financial linkage a cross banks on transmitting from one bank to another; which enable us to assess if the risk is systemic or not. The results showed the larger total asset of the bank, the larger they contribute to systemic risk. Keywords : Conditional Value at Risk; Probability of Default; systemic risk and financial linkages;Value at Risk. JEL Classification: D81, G21, G33